Amid concerns over international tensions and decrease in the number of Indian students in Canada this year, a recent report has revealed that the country was the ultimate choice for Indian students as a study abroad destination in 2022.
Analysing the data based on student movement to Major English Speaking Destination Countries (MESDC) including data from Project Atlas, OECD, UNESCO among others between March 2022 – December 2022 and collated at the end of 2023, the MM Advisory Services report titled ‘Indian Students Mobility Report 2023’ revealed Canada’s meteoric rise as the preferred destination for Indian students seeking international education.
“There has been an unprecedented surge in 2022, Canada shattered previous records by marking an 86% increase in Indian student intake over the past five years, nearly doubling its numbers since 2018. Notably, Canada’s Year-on-year growth rate in 2022 was an impressive 46.8%, second only to the UK,” stated the report.
Over the past 10 years, Canada has had the highest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), indicating strong long-term growth in its international student numbers. The US has had the highest variance in student numbers over the past decade, indicating greater uncertainty in its student mobility trends.
Maria Mathai, founder, MM Advisory Services, says, “A combination of favourable immigration policies and Canada’s position as an alternative when other countries are less attractive has contributed to this phenomenon. By our estimates, 70-80% of the intake is for diploma programs.”
While Canada emerged as the ultimate choice for Indian students, stalwart destinations like the United Kingdom and the United States maintained their appeal. The UK witnessed a remarkable 49.6% growth in 2022, surpassing Australia significantly. Meanwhile, the US displayed a noteworthy 18.9% increase, almost reaching its 2019 student volumes despite challenges related to visa backlogs and campus security issues.
In contrast, Australia experienced a modest 0.7% growth in 2022. However, its slip from being the second most popular destination in the world to fourth place over the past five years highlights a shift in international student preferences.
Future of Canada
Canada’s 10.67% average growth rate has been consistently higher than that of the US, UK, and Australia. This momentum for Canada may drop a bit in the coming years. Some systematic capacities might be straining at the edges (housing shortages, for instance), and as a result, the PG diploma student numbers may start dropping somewhat. Despite this imminent headwind, we believe Canadian universities and colleges can optimise their growth potential further. As per experts, Australia is likely to yield more effective results with drop in Canada’s popularity among students.
In the Indian context particularly, the key contributor to the blockbuster growth rates has been the PG diploma-seeking students from India. Private colleges offering these programs have been a big magnet for Indian students seeking to immigrate to Canada, especially in lower-skilled professions.
Slow growth in US
In 2022, the US experienced a modest 3.8% growth in the number of international students. Despite this slower growth rate compared to other countries, the US still has a commanding lead in absolute numbers, with a difference of 140,769 more international students than Canada. However, it will be crucial for the US to address their challenges, particularly campus security concerns, to ensure it continues to be the destination of choice for international students amid increasing competition from Canada and the UK.
Rise of UK
The UK witnessed substantial increase in international student mobility over recent years. This growth has been driven by a combination of favourable policy changes – proactive approach to reopening after the pandemic, and the revival of two-year work visa after completion of the study program. As a result, in 2022, the UK achieved a 12.4% growth rate in the number of international students, the highest among the top four destinations. This growth helped the UK displace Australia and secure the third spot.
Australia one step down
Australia has seen a decline in its position in the student mobility market over the past few years. From consistently being the second most popular destination for international students, it has now been pushed to fourth place. A key contributing factor for the 2022 decline was the impact of Australia’s immigration policy, particularly restrictions on admitting international students due in the post-pandemic period also.
MMA analysis is based on data released to the public by international think tanks and Government organisations that track international student mobility for source & destination countries including but not limited to Open-Doors report (for USA), IRCC (for Canada) HESA (for UK), etc.
Key Developments
1. The UK showcased explosive growth, with a 44% increase over the past five years, while Canada maintained steady growth at 13%.
2. The US and Australia exhibited much slower growth rates, with the US almost stagnant in its numbers.
3. The UK’s student numbers have more than quadrupled in the past five years, indicating dynamic growth.
4. Canada broke previous records for Indian international student admissions in 2022, driven by favourable immigration policies and its status as a reliable alternative to other countries.
5. The primary contributors to Canada’s growth are PG diploma-seeking students from India.
6. Canada’s year-on-year growth in 2022 was 46.8%, and over the past five years, it increased its intake from India by over 86%.
“We expect the UK to continue its upward trajectory as a favoured destination for Indian students. The US, traditionally the dominant force in international student mobility, will continue its reign at the top, despite facing its own set of challenges. Canada’s Year-on-year numbers for the first half were higher than 2022 but diplomatic tensions in the later half of the year may prevent it from breaking more records this year,” adds Mathai.